Bitcoin Nears New Highs: Weak Jobs Data & ETF Flows Ignite Crypto Surge

Labor Market Weakness and Bitcoin’s Potential Rally

According to Cointelegraph, the latest JOLTS report from the US Labor Department revealed a significant drop in job openings, with vacancies falling to 7.2 million in March, below the 7.5 million forecast by economists. This marks one of the lowest levels in four years. Additionally, US consumer confidence has declined for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.

Historically, such weak labor and consumer data have often preceded rallies in Bitcoin. For example, between January and June 2024, similar economic conditions led to Bitcoin’s price fluctuating between $53,000 and $66,000, followed by a 60% rally in mid-October that pushed BTC above $100,000. The report notes that it typically takes over 105 days for these macroeconomic effects to be reflected in the cryptocurrency market.

Period	Job Openings	BTC Price Movement	Time Lag
Jan-Jun 2024	Decline	$53,000 to $66,000, then above $100,000	105 days
Jan-Jun 2023	Decline	Fell 18% to $25,000, then up to $43,900	115 days
Feb-May 2020	Significant drop	Briefly below $4,000, then up to $19,700	105-130 days

If these patterns persist, Bitcoin could potentially rally by mid-July and reach a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, provided there is further improvement in macroeconomic data.

Job openings in March: 7.2 million (forecast: 7.5 million)
Consumer confidence: Lowest since January 2021
Potential BTC target: $140,000 by October 2025

Summary: Weak labor and consumer data have historically preceded significant Bitcoin rallies, with a typical lag of 105-130 days. If trends continue, a major BTC rally could occur by October 2025. (Source: Cointelegraph)

Market Reaction to ETF Delays and Bitcoin’s Performance

FXStreet reports that the cryptocurrency market capitalization dipped 2.6% on Wednesday, consolidating above the $3.06 trillion level. Bitcoin’s price approached $95,500 for the sixth consecutive day before pulling back to $94,200. The US SEC’s decision to delay altcoin ETF verdicts until June 2025 triggered more than 3% declines in XRP, DOGE, and AVAX prices.

Despite the ETF delays, Bitcoin ETFs saw another $178 million in inflows on Tuesday, with BlackRock ETFs accounting for $216 million in deposits. In contrast, Ark Invest, Fidelity, and Bitwise funds experienced outflows of $6.2 million, $13.3 million, and $24.4 million, respectively. The ETF inflows have helped keep BTC above $95,000 for six days, while Ethereum also reached a monthly peak of $1,837.

Asset	Price (April 30)	24h Change	Weekly Change
Bitcoin (BTC)	$94,200	-	-
XRP	$2.18	-4.4%	-
DOGE	$0.1714	-3.5%	+7.0%
AVAX	Above $18	-3.9%	-

The SEC also closed its investigation into PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin without enforcement action, following strategic moves by PayPal to boost adoption, such as a partnership with Coinbase and integration into the Solana blockchain.

Market cap: $3.06 trillion
BTC ETF inflows: $178 million (BlackRock: $216 million)
XRP, DOGE, AVAX: >3% decline after ETF delay
ETH monthly peak: $1,837

Summary: ETF delays have led to short-term declines in major altcoins, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown resilience, supported by strong ETF inflows. (Source: FXStreet)

Wall Street’s $10 Trillion Bitcoin ETF Opportunity

According to Forbes, Bitcoin’s price has surged toward $100,000, rebounding from April lows of around $75,000. This rally is attributed to the Federal Reserve’s supportive stance and growing anticipation of Wall Street’s entry into Bitcoin ETFs. The “big four” wirehouses—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—control over $10 trillion in client assets but have not yet broadly allowed advisors to access Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects all four wirehouses to be “open for business” on Bitcoin ETFs by the end of the year. In 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $3.7 billion in net inflows, compared to $35 billion in 2024. Last week alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $3 billion in inflows, signaling renewed growth after a period of outflows.

“The overall outlook for bitcoin remains bullish,” said Arthur Azizov, founder of B2 Ventures. He cautioned that minor pullbacks are possible, with a potential retracement into the $86,000–$83,000 range.

Bitcoin price: Near $100,000 (April low: $75,000)
Wirehouse client assets: $10 trillion
2025 Bitcoin ETF inflows: $3.7 billion
2024 Bitcoin ETF inflows: $35 billion
Last week’s ETF inflows: $3 billion

Summary: Wall Street’s major wirehouses are expected to open access to Bitcoin ETFs, potentially unlocking $10 trillion in client assets and driving further inflows. (Source: Forbes)

Ethereum ETF Staking and Price Dynamics

Cointelegraph highlights that Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes approving staking for spot Ether ETFs in the US will have minimal impact on inflows unless Ether experiences a sustained, multimonth rally. Since the launch of Ether ETFs in July, ETH has not seen the same price surge as Bitcoin, with ETH dropping significantly after ETF introduction.

Balchunas noted that during a rally in December, ETH surged 71% to $4,107, and spot Ether ETFs saw a 19-day positive inflow streak, amassing approximately $2.44 billion. However, since reaching $4,107, ETH has fallen 56% to around $1,809. For inflows to pick up, Balchunas argues that ETH needs a “multimonth run” and a strong narrative.

Date	ETH Price	ETF Inflows
Dec 16	$4,107	$2.44 billion (19 days)
Current	$1,809	-

ETH price drop since ETF launch: 56%
Potential for staking approval by end of October

Summary: Staking approval for Ether ETFs may have limited impact unless ETH enters a sustained rally, with significant inflows tied to strong price performance. (Source: Cointelegraph)

Ethereum’s Bullish Momentum and Institutional Demand

Bitcoinist.com reports that Ethereum (ETH) has shown notable momentum, rallying from around $1,575 on April 22 to approximately $1,830, a nearly 20% increase. Technical analysts suggest that if ETH confirms a close above resistance, it could soon target the $2,000 level.

ETH spot ETFs saw over $64 million in inflows on April 28, and the week ending April 25 marked the first positive weekly net inflow since February 2025. US ETH spot ETFs now hold $6.20 billion in net assets, representing 2.87% of Ethereum’s total market cap, with cumulative net inflows of $2.47 billion. CoinShares data shows ETH investment products attracted $183 million in net inflows last week, breaking an eight-week outflow streak.

Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem is also rebounding, with total value locked (TVL) in DeFi platforms jumping over 10% since April 22 to $51.67 billion. However, some analysts remain cautious, noting “sloppy” price action and the potential for a drop back to support zones.

ETH price rally: $1,575 to $1,830 (+20%)
April 28 ETF inflows: $64 million
US ETH spot ETF net assets: $6.20 billion (2.87% of market cap)
DeFi TVL: $51.67 billion (+10% since April 22)

Summary: Ethereum is experiencing renewed bullish momentum, with rising ETF inflows and institutional demand, though some analysts remain cautious about short-term volatility. (Source: Bitcoinist.com)

Crypto Stocks Outperform Amid Market Turmoil

According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency-linked stocks outperformed in April, despite turbulence in US equity markets. Shares of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Coinbase Global Inc., and mining firm CleanSpark Inc. all posted double-digit gains, even as the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.8%. This rally allowed crypto stocks to surpass the performance of many tech stocks.

Crypto stocks: Double-digit gains in April
S&P 500 Index: -0.8% in April

Summary: Crypto stocks demonstrated resilience and outperformed traditional tech stocks during a period of broader market volatility. (Source: Bloomberg)

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