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Bitcoin Bulls Face Reality: Retail Investors Are Already Here
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the long-anticipated influx of retail investors into Bitcoin has already occurred, primarily through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ju highlighted that 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows originate from retail investors, a trend observed since October 2023. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have reached $35.88 billion.
Ju also noted that relying solely on on-chain metrics to track retail activity may lead to an incomplete picture, as many retail investors are now entering the market through ETFs rather than direct wallet transactions. This shift has kept the realized cap lower than expected. Despite earlier predictions of a bull market, Ju now believes Bitcoin may take 6-12 months to break its all-time high, citing macroeconomic factors and a lack of new liquidity as key challenges.
"The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because on-chain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration," said Ki Young Ju.
Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to a "Fear" score of 31, down from a "Neutral" score of 49, reflecting declining retail sentiment. Google search trends for "crypto" have also decreased by 62% since January 2024.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows | $35.88 billion |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 31 (Fear) |
| Google Search Score for "Crypto" | 38 |
Key Takeaway: Retail investors are already active in the Bitcoin market, primarily through ETFs, challenging traditional on-chain metrics as indicators of retail participation.
Eric Trump Joins Japanese Bitcoin Firm Metaplanet
Japanese Bitcoin investment company Metaplanet has appointed Eric Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, to its newly formed strategic board of advisors. The company, which trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, aims to advance Bitcoin adoption and financial innovation. Trump is described as a "leading voice and advocate of digital asset adoption worldwide."
Previously known as Red Planet Japan, the company shifted its focus from regional hotel operations to Bitcoin investments. Its subsidiary, Red Planet Hotels Japan, filed for bankruptcy in May 2024. The strategic board is expected to guide Metaplanet in its mission to expand Bitcoin's global reach.
Key Takeaway: Eric Trump's involvement signals Metaplanet's commitment to promoting Bitcoin adoption and financial innovation.
Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Two-Year Low
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index for Bitcoin has dropped to 20, its lowest level in over two years, signaling a potential prolonged downturn. The index, which combines ten metrics such as network activity and market liquidity, indicates that only two metrics remain in bullish territory. Historically, scores above 60 are needed for sustained price rallies, while scores below 40 align with bear markets.
Bitcoin's price has already fallen 23% from its January 2024 peak of $109,000, and analysts warn that the current environment may reflect a broader bearish trend rather than a temporary correction. On-chain fundamentals have deteriorated since February 2025, with eight metrics flashing warning signals.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Bull Score Index | 20 |
| Bitcoin Price Decline | 23% from peak |
Key Takeaway: Bitcoin's market sentiment is at a two-year low, raising concerns about a prolonged bearish phase.
Bitcoin ATM Scams on the Rise
Bitcoin ATM scams have surged, with consumer losses increasing from $12 million in 2020 to $114 million in 2023, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Older adults are particularly vulnerable, being three times more likely than younger individuals to fall victim to such scams. Scammers often use urgency tactics, instructing victims to deposit cash into Bitcoin ATMs using QR codes that transfer funds directly to the scammers' accounts.
Some states, including California, Vermont, and Minnesota, have introduced regulations for Bitcoin ATMs, but most of the U.S. remains unregulated. Operators claim to implement fraud prevention measures, such as multiple warning screens, but victims like Joseph Buentello, an 80-year-old retiree, continue to lose significant sums.
Key Takeaway: Bitcoin ATM scams are a growing concern, with older adults being disproportionately affected. Regulatory measures are needed to curb these fraudulent activities.
Bitcoin Miners Face Financial Pressure
Bitcoin miners are experiencing financial strain as hashprice, the revenue per unit of computing power, dropped to $45/PH/s in February 2025. This marks a significant decline from the post-election surge. Transaction fees, which made up just 1.3% of total block rewards in February, are at their lowest share since October 2022. The combined market capitalization of 15 major mining firms fell from $36 billion in January to $22 billion in March.
Despite these challenges, total Bitcoin holdings among miners surpassed 100,000 BTC for the first time. However, increased competition from AI data centers and rising energy costs are adding to the pressure. Analysts suggest that a Bitcoin price rally may be necessary to alleviate the financial burden on miners.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Hashprice | $45/PH/s |
| Market Capitalization of Mining Firms | $22 billion |
Key Takeaway: Bitcoin miners are under financial pressure due to declining hashprice and transaction fees, with a price rally needed to stabilize the sector.
Sources:
- Bad news Bitcoin bulls, the long-hoped-for retail is already here: CryptoQuant
- Japanese bitcoin company Metaplanet names Eric Trump as advisor
- Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Hits Two-Year Low, Signals Possible 'Prolonged Downturn'
- Why scammers are increasingly turning to bitcoin ATMs to carry out their cons
- Bitcoin Miners Feel the Squeeze as Hashprice Erases Post-Election Gains
- Bitcoin is at its lowest price since November. Here’s what analysts say about buying the dip
